According to analysts Deutsche Bank within the next 12 months there is a 60% chance that the U.S. will be in a recession. Their yield-curve calculations are showing this to be the highest probability since the financial crisis. The yield curve is a comparison of long term rates vs short terms rates and economic slowdowns are typically noticed when the two have a narrowing difference. In fact some of the results are the flattest since 2007.
There is the thought that the measure of the yield curve as a recession signal is not what it used to be and many analysts questions whether the low level of short term rates have removed this thought entirely. However based on the history of a flat yield curve preceding a U.S. recession and the fact that other major banks are calculating similar yield curve results the odds of the next economic downturn are rising.
Read more about this story here: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession, Deutsche Bank Says